Covid 19 Update From Kano State Nigeria
Kano is playing as predicted. It has recorded 16 in 48 hours. I had said it will be the game changer if not perfectly handled.
Its unique topography in terms of density, religious and cultural affinity, level of literacy and poverty index makes it a very fertile ground for the exponential spread predicted for Lagos that we have not seen Thankfully, the Government of Kano is beginning to take steps with its lockdown and upgrading of isolation centres.
But this gives me less confidence especially if u take into cognisance the fact that diseases like polio, cerebrospinal meningitis and measles that have been long eradicated still roam free in the place. The good luck that we have is that rate of discharge is still growing with the number placed at 166 and 19 as of April 18, 2020 deaths and above 80 % chance recovery rate.
Now let me talk about the 19 dead. My position that 90 % of this are careless and based on other underlying causes which Covid only took advantage of still stands. However something is emerging. The treatment of Covid patients in private installations not equipped for its handling. A case in point is the very stupid death which has been confirmed of a doctor at Luth. This Doctor was said to be treating a Covid case in a private installation. The patient died, he contracted it and was only rushed to Luth at the last minute. These 2 form the 19 and unfortunately, data does not take into consideration stupidity.
Finally, we seem to have attracted the attention of IMF who have announced an $11b grant to 12 African countries. The first stage we were not included but with kano now in the picture and its potential for disaster we are in good stead for the assistance. IMF predicted a – 3.5 % decline in GDP stating that we should get ready for the worse recession since 2015 and that all hands must be on deck to fight this. This to my mind is the point. The economy. We must face it very succinctly otherwise we would start counting the rate of suicide as against the rate of covid deaths and with an *80* % recovery for covid you can vet which rate will outstrip each other.
In conclusion, i think the Lagos state govt should take on a nationalistic fervour, giving the NCDC support in the fight nationally especially in Kano. If the much counted herd immunity doesn’t kick in we may be witnessing armageddon in that place. A phased relaxation of the lockdown on Lagos which is the commercial capital is recommended and gradually extended to Abuja. Oyo is already doing that and things are looking manageable there. We must have clarity in this fight and not ruled by fear. The figures are still realistic via total population and number of cases of other communicable and much more dangerous illnesses.
Joseph Edgar – 19/4/2020
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